In the recent Classic Business interview with Kelin Pottier, Solution Strategist at 10X, the spotlight was on the potential of a looming recession and its implications for investors.

Here’s a short summary of the key takeaways

  1. The recession landscape
    Pottier highlights the multifaceted nature of recessions, stemming from overheated economies, energy crises, or exogenous shocks like COVID-19. The historical analysis revealed three common recession variants, underlining the challenge for investors in predicting a one-size-fits-all approach. The evolution from the traditional business cycle to the credit cycle, influenced by central banks and inflation-targeting policies, has significantly reduced the frequency of recessions since the 1930s.
  2. Reading the signs
    Signs are pointing to the US economy nearing the peak of its business cycle. Key indicators, including manufacturing data and employment figures, suggest a potential slowdown. Pottier emphasises the need for investors to be vigilant about valuations, especially in the late stage of the economic cycle.
  3. Investing wisely
    Pottier provides practical insights into investing through a potential recession. While bonds tend to outperform in the early stages, the warning against a simplistic strategy of sitting in cash and bonds was clear. Investors were advised to focus on stress-testing portfolios for resilience in the equity market. Flexibility and a well-balanced approach were underscored as essential elements for developing a recession-proof investment strategy.

The key message is clear – in the face of economic complexities, a strategic and diversified approach is paramount for investors looking to weather potential storms in the financial market. Listen to the full podcast below.

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